统计研究

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国际比较项目(ICP)高估发展中国家实际消费水平了吗

王岩 杨仲山   

  • 出版日期:2017-07-15 发布日期:2017-07-18

Does International Comparison Program Overestimate the Real Consumption of Developing Countries

Wang Yan & Yang Zhongshan   

  • Online:2017-07-15 Published:2017-07-18

摘要: ICP最新一轮的比较结果(ICP2011)显示,发展中国家经PPP调整后的经济总量数据大幅上调。本文从总量层次多边指数方法入手,探讨多边指数方法的选择对发展中国家尤其是对中国实际消费水平比较结果可能产生的影响。利用ICP2011年轮的基础数据,以经济指数方法GAIA测算结果作为基准,本文探究了GK法以及GEKS法所测算的各国人均实际个人消费支出的偏差程度,结果发现:(1)在ICP2011年轮中,如果使用GK法进行购买力平价计算,仍将会受到替代偏差的影响;(2)ICP2011所采用的GEKS方法普遍地高估了发展中国家的人均实际个人消费支出水平,其中,中国被高估的水平达到6.24%;(3)GK法和GEKS法都低估了各国在人均实际个人消费支出水平上的差距,基于GAIA方法所度量的支出差距更具有合理性。

关键词: 国际比较项目, GAIA, GEKS, 实际个人消费

Abstract: The latest International Comparison Program (ICP) shows that the PPP adjusted economic aggregates for developing countries are much higher than previous estimates. We examine how the different Multilateral Index methods affect the estimates of actual individual consumption for developing countries, in particular for china. Using the data from ICP2011, we set the estimates of GAIA method as a benchmark and measure the biases in GK and GEKS. The empirical results show that: (1) when GK is used at the aggregate level in ICP2011, the final results will still suffer from substitution bias; (2) GEKS which is used in ICP2011 systematically overestimates the actual individual consumption per capita for developing countries. For China, it is overestimated by 6.24%; (3) GK and GEKS underestimate the inequalities in actual individual consumption per capita, while the inequalities measured by GAIA are more reasonable.

Key words: International Comparison Program, GAIA, GEKS, Actual Individual Consumption