统计研究

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劳动力成本与工业结构调整的统计检验

肖尧 杨校美   

  • 出版日期:2016-11-15 发布日期:2016-11-11

The Statistical Test of Labor Cost and Industrial Structural Change

Xiao Yao & Yang Xiaomei   

  • Online:2016-11-15 Published:2016-11-11

摘要: 劳动力成本是否影响我国工业结构?进一步,对我国工业结构调整将产生怎样影响?针对该问题,本文利用中国2001-2013年工业行业面板数据,以单位劳动力成本为门槛变量,构建门槛面板模型,检验单位劳动力成本与工业结构调整之间的关系。结果表明,单位劳动力成本与工业结构调整呈现“U”型关系:当单位劳动力成本低于门槛值0.1246时,其对工业结构调整产生负面影响;而当单位劳动力成本高于该门槛值时,其对工业结构调整具有正向影响。本文的政策涵义是,政府和企业应该以单位劳动力成本上升为契机,转变经济发展模式和生产方式,积极引导和促进工业结构优化升级。

关键词: 劳动力成本, 工业结构, 门限面板模型

Abstract: Has Labor Cost impact on China’s industrial structure? Further, how Unit Labor Cost effect China’s industrial structural change? With these problems, based on 2001-2013 China’s industry sectors, this article builds threshold panel model by Unit Labor Cost as threshold variable to examine the relationship between Unit Labor Cost and industrial structural change. The results of empirical analysis show that, Unit Labor Cost has a “U shaped” relationship between industrial structural change. When Unit Labor Cost falls below a certain critical point 0.1426%, Unit Labor Cost is harmful to industrial structural change; When Unit Labor Cost exceeds the critical point, Unit Labor Cost has a positive influence on industrial structural change. The policy implication is that the government and the enterprises should change the economic development and production mode, and actively guide and promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure by taking advantage of the rising Unit Labor Cost.

Key words: Labor Cost, Industrial Structure, Threshold Panel Model