关键词: 贫困缺口总指数, 因素分解, 精准减贫

Abstract: This paper constructs poverty index , and based on the factor decomposition of , the derived indexes are proposed to predict some important indicators of poverty. Empirical results based on 1991-2011 span 20 years 8 rounds of survey data from CHNS show that, in rural China, the total poverty gap rate with an average annual decline rate of 6.4%, is due to the total size of the poverty population decline, and the other two factors, i.e., the average poverty gap and the poverty level discrepancy show annual slightly rising trend, which mean the quality of poverty reduction is not optimistic; assuming that the existing poverty reduction mode can be sustained, the forecasting indicators of average poverty gap level, poverty inequality degree and poverty scale in 2020 show that there will be a long way to achieve the poverty reduction target.; we propose to take measures of precision poverty reduction, focus on improving earning power of poor population, and reducing poverty inequality.

Key words: Poverty Gap Index, Factor Decomposition, Precision Poverty Reduction