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### 地方政府债务的非线性环境效应研究

• 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2021-12-25

### Non-linear Environmental Effects of Local Government Debt

Guo Yuemei Xue Jingwen

• Online:2021-12-25 Published:2021-12-25

Abstract: Understanding the consequences of local government debt is an important work to improve the system and mechanism to prevent and resolve major risks in China. However, the current understanding of how local government debt affects social welfare is still controversial. This paper examines the impact consequences of local government debt from an environmental perspective by combining the data on government debt at the prefecture level with the data on corporate pollution emissions. The results show that the impact of local government debt on the pollution emission of enterprises is a U-type non-linear relationship. The mechanism analysis shows that when local government debt is within a reasonable range, the increase of debt is conducive to enhancing local governments’ financial resources and strengthening local environmental supervision, thus reducing enterprises’ pollution emissions. However, when local government debt breaks through the inflection point value, the debt repayment burden increases the financial pressure of local governments. In order to expand fiscal revenue, local governments choose to “ race to the bottom”, which leads to the increase of pollution emissions of enterprises, indicating that the expansion of local government debt has a conversion effect between financial resources and pressure. Further analysis shows that after breaking the inflection point value, the local government debt has a stronger promoting effect on the pollution emissions of private enterprises, small-sized enterprises, and companies in regions with high growth goals, low economic level and low environmental attention. Our results enrich the study on the consequences of local government debt and provide a guidance for making policies to control government debt.