关键词: 省际贸易数据库, 贸易演变特征, 不确定性分析, 蒙特卡洛模拟技术

Abstract: For the first time ever,this paper constructs a database of intra-provincial,inter-provincial,and international trade covering 28 provinces in China from 1992 to 2017.The database includes inter-provincial freight volume,inter-provincial total trade volume, inter-provincial trade data of different industries,as well as import and export trade data of different provinces and industries. Based on this database,China’ s interprovincial trade evolution characteristics are analyzed comprehensively from the perspective of weight,total trade volume, and trade by industry.The results show that the total domestic trade volume is positively proportional to the economic scale of each region,the trade in goods is more important in the undeveloped regions of northwest and southwest China,while trade in services has more influence in the north,east,southern coastal and central developed regions of China.Each region strongly prefers domestic trade and intraregional trade to international trade and inter-regional trade,and intra-regional trade proportion of manufacturing products is higher than that of primary products. International trade exerts a greater influence on north,east,southern coastal regions, while domestic trade is more significant to central,northwest and southwest China.The increasing trend of intra-provincial trade proportion reflects the lack of China’s domestic marketintegration.At last, in order to analyze the impact of original data error on the estimation of inter-provincial trade flow,the Monte Carlo technique is introduced to calculate the uncertainty of inter-provincial trade flow estimation results, whose relative standard deviation is no more than 6. 12%~8. 44%.

Key words: Inter-provincial Trade Database, Trade Evolution Characteristics, Uncertainty Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation Technique