统计研究

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增加值贸易测算:概念与方法辨析

夏明 张红霞   

  • 出版日期:2015-06-15 发布日期:2015-06-25

Accounting Trade in Value-Added: Concepts and Methods

Xia Ming Zhang Hongxia   

  • Online:2015-06-15 Published:2015-06-25

摘要: 增加值贸易的测算是当前理论界和实际工作中十分关注的话题,但是对于测算方法本身的讨论,在国内还没有引起足够的重视。本文重点对增加值贸易测算中不同概念之间的关系进行了辨析,对测算方法的演化路径进行了理论剖析。经过分析指出,目前国内外理论界通常采用的计算全部出口中所包含增加值的“贸易增加值”测算方法存在着理论缺陷。问题的关键在于在一个中间产品进出口内生化的模型中,却要把中间产品出口作为外生变量来处理。其背后的根本原因则在于在把全球经济作为一个单一生产系统的分析框架中,中间产品贸易是被最终需求所驱动的,并成为衔接需求和收入之间的桥梁,而贸易本身并非最终驱动因素。

关键词: 增加值贸易, 贸易增加值, 投入产出分析

Abstract: Measuring trade in value added (TiVA) attracts much attention in related theoretic and practical work. However, it has not caused enough attention to discuss the methods of calculating TiVA in China. This paper distinguishes the different concepts of measuring trade in value added, and analyzes the evolution path of the measurement methods theoretically. Then it points out that there are theory defects on the method of computing value added in trade when accounting the value added embodied in gross exports. The key problem is that the endogenous intermediate exports are regarded as exogenous variables in the model. The implied reason is that in a framework considering global economy as one production system, the intermediate trade is promoted by final demand and a bridge connecting demand and income, while trade itself is not a final driving factor.

Key words: Trade in Value Added, Value Added in Trade, Input-output Analysis