关键词: 季节调整, 春节效应, 春节模型

Abstract: Seasonal adjustment is a very important step during the economic data preprocessing. Holiday adjustment is an inevitable step for the popular seasonal adjustment methods which include X-12-ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS. Because different countries have different kinds of holidays, the popular seasonal adjustment methods must be modified when they are used in different countries. For China, the Spring Festival is a very important and comparatively long holiday, and it happens in January or February. In this paper, on the basis of the X-12-ARIMA method, we design different kinds of Spring Festival adjustment models considering this holiday’s influence on economic indicators, the rate of change of the influence and spans of the spring festival effects. By applying different economic indicators, the paper tests these different Spring Festival models by using software Demetra and Eviews. At last, the best Spring Festival adjustment models are picked out in the criteria of outlier percentage reduction.

Key words: Seasonal adjustment, Spring Festival effects, Spring Festival models