关键词: 个人所得税, 家庭消费, 宣告效应, 实施效应, 事件分析法

Abstract: It is important and difficult for policy evaluation to identify the anticipation effect accurately. Based on monthly China Urban Household Survey (CUHS) data from 2010 to 2012, this paper finds that: Firstly, when the amendment to the Personal Income Tax Law was passed at the end of June 2011, household consumption had increased significantly. When it was formally implemented in September 2011, household consumption reached its maximum. Then, the estimates gradually declined and reached a relatively steady state (around 020) two months later, but not significant statistically. Different from previous researches, our paper indicates that reduction of income tax in urban China stimulates the household consumption only in the short run and ignoring the household anticipation would lead to a downward bias. Secondly, services and food consumption increases most significantly among all consumption categories. The durable goods and debt expenditure are almost unaffected which may be due to the limited amount of tax reduction. Thirdly, the MPC decreases monotonically with the increase of the tax reduction rate (rather than income level or liquidity), which is contrary to traditional understanding. Our paper modifies the theoretical model by Kueng (2018) to rationalize the “anomalous phenomenon”.

Key words: Income Tax, Household Consumption, Announcement Effect, Implementation Effect, Event Study