关键词: 中国特色大国外交, 贸易引力模型, 时变等级指数, 泛经济合作

Abstract: Major country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics is a new concept explored in China’s diplomatic policies in recent years. This paper constructs the time-variant ranking index to measure the diplomatic relationship between China and its trade counterparts, and tests its validity by two dimensions, i.e., origins and maintenance of the diplomatic relations, by extracting the official rhetoric from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Based on a trade-driven model covering the diplomatic factors, this paper puts forward the “trade driven by diplomacy” hypothesis, empirically tested by using the bilateral trade data set between China and other 166 countries in the years of 1992 - 2013. It is found that when the diplomatic relation is up-grading one reading, the Chinese openness to other countries’ exports can be significantly increased by nearly 23%. The hypothesis is justified robust even by replacing the diplomatic endogenous issues, model time periods and indicator items. Further studies show that the diplomatic driving forces not only manifest nonlinear transmission mechanism with inverse-U shape, but also present a significant structural mutation between “strong” and “weak states”, that means, the weak state diplomacy is trade-oriented while the strong state focuses on pan-economic development. The result indicates in the context of improvement of overall international relations, Chinese diplomacy takes on the pattern of a major country characterized by “economic cooperation to pan-economic development”.

Key words: Major Country Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics, Trade-driven Model, Time-variant Ranking Index, Pan-economic Development