关键词: 新疆棉花, 棉花期货价格, 收入保险, Copula函数, 费率测算

Abstract: The cotton revenue insurance promoted in Xinjiang is helpful for the steady development of cotton industry in China. Focusing on the cotton in Xinjiang, this paper measures the cotton revenue premium rates under 4 scenarios with various secured incomes and revenue premium rates under these secured income by using the cotton yield and cotton futures prices in November contracts, estimating the production risks of unit cotton area and price risks, and simulating the joint risk distribution with these two variables in Clayton Copula function, with the assumption that the cotton futures market is effective. It shows that the simulated revenue is reasonable and at the level of 75% of the total cotton cost to be secured the revenue insurance to be applied is much practical. The measurement results achieved is quite applicable in reality.

Key words: Xinjiang Cotton, Cotton Futures Price, Revenue Insurance, Copula function, Premium Rate